The use of natural gas in China is still relatively immature, as gas production only supplies a low percentage of the domestic energy system. In contrast, the Chinese economy mainly relies on coal with a 67% share of the total primary energy supply. The environmental impact from this high coal dependence is significant and planners have sought for cleaner energy sources. Natural gas is both cleaner and generally more efficient than coal and gas consumption is rising quickly due to these facts. The growth tendency indicates that natural gas will become an important substitution for coal in some parts of the Chinese primary energy consumption. To quantify this tendency, this paper uses a system dynamics model to create a possible outlook. The results show that the gas consumption in China will continue to increase fast to 89.5 billion cubic meters in 2010; 198.2 billion cubic meters in 2020, before finally reaching 340.7 billion cubic meters in 2030. It is also found that the consumption structure will change and scenario analysis was used to assess this closer. Finally, this paper gives some policy suggestions on natural gas exploration and development, infrastructure constructions and technical innovations to promote a sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry.
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